Outlook

The effects of the ongoing tariff war are difficult to assess, as we do not know what the final scope and consequences will be. Generally speaking, the hotel market is dependent on economic activity and the tariffs are creating uncertainty, especially among companies. This is countered by a more united and strong Europe, with the opportunity to create growth through investments. Also, consumers have so far been very resilient and have consistently prioritised travel and experiences above other consumption.

The datapoints are still few and mainly concern international travel between Europe and the US. The indication is that travel from Europe to the US has already decreased and is expected to decrease further in the coming quarters. This creates the conditions for increased intraregional travel within Europe as intercontinental travel is rebooked to new destinations. Travel from the US to Europe has not been affected to the same extent, and the net effect of this may very well be a continued stable hotel market in Europe – which is also an unrivalled destination for travel, with around 55 percent of global arrivals.